Add polls command, add year and senate option to simulator
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9 changed files with 2201 additions and 169 deletions
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assets/ElectoralCollege1864.svg
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|
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style="font-size:13.3333px;text-align:center;text-anchor:middle;fill:#ffffff;fill-opacity:1">TN</tspan><tspan
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|
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id="tspan66"
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|
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y="357.50385"
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x="675.10925"
|
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|
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style="font-size:13.3333px;text-align:center;text-anchor:middle;fill:#ffffff">KY</tspan><tspan
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id="tspan70"
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|
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x="644.74738"
|
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|
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style="text-align:center;text-anchor:middle;fill:#ffffff">IN</tspan><tspan
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|
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id="tspan78"
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x="644.74738"
|
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x="663.32098"
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style="font-size:13.3333px;text-align:center;text-anchor:middle;fill:#ffffff">MI</tspan><tspan
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id="tspan80"
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x="663.32098"
|
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|
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style="font-size:13.3333px;text-align:center;text-anchor:middle;fill:#ffffff;fill-opacity:1">OH</tspan><tspan
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id="tspan82"
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|
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y="252.05338"
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style="font-size:13.3333px;text-align:center;text-anchor:middle;fill:#ffffff;fill-opacity:1">WV</tspan><tspan
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id="tspan84"
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|
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|
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|
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style="font-size:13.3333px;text-align:center;text-anchor:middle;fill:#ffffff">PA</tspan><tspan
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|
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id="tspan88"
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x="779.22137"
|
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style="font-size:13.3333px;text-align:center;text-anchor:middle;fill:#ffffff">26</tspan></text>
|
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<text
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id="NYn"
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style="font-size:13.3333px"><tspan
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|
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y="153.03532"
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style="font-size:13.3333px;text-align:center;text-anchor:middle;fill:#ffffff;fill-opacity:1">NY</tspan><tspan
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x="811.52887"
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y="169.70195"
|
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id="tspan91"
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style="font-size:13.3333px;text-align:center;text-anchor:middle;fill:#ffffff;fill-opacity:1">33</tspan></text>
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x="891.53564"
|
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y="78.833321"
|
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style="font-size:13.3333px;text-align:center;text-anchor:middle;fill:#ffffff">ME</tspan><tspan
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id="tspan62"
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x="891.53564"
|
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y="95.499947"
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style="fill:#ffffff;stroke-width:0.52686" /><tspan
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|
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id="tspan5"
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style="fill:#ffffff;stroke-width:0.52686" /></text>
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<text
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|
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id="tspan4-0"
|
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|
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|
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style="fill:#ffffff;stroke-width:0.52686" /><tspan
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sodipodi:role="line"
|
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id="tspan5-9"
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sodipodi:role="line"
|
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id="tspan4-6"
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x="463.3028"
|
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style="fill:#ffffff;fill-opacity:1;stroke-width:0.52686" /><tspan
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sodipodi:role="line"
|
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<text
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|
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y="164"
|
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|
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id="RIn"
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x="925"
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y="199"
|
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|
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x="918"
|
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y="228"
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|
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|
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id="NJn"
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x="898"
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y="282.73816"
|
||||
style="font-size:13.3333px"><tspan
|
||||
sodipodi:role="line"
|
||||
id="tspan86"
|
||||
x="771.05426"
|
||||
y="282.73816"
|
||||
style="font-size:13.3333px;fill:#ffffff">VA</tspan></text>
|
||||
<text
|
||||
id="PAn"
|
||||
x="779.22137"
|
||||
y="210.08958"
|
||||
style="font-size:13.3333px"><tspan
|
||||
sodipodi:role="line"
|
||||
id="tspan87"
|
||||
x="779.22137"
|
||||
y="210.08958"
|
||||
style="font-size:13.3333px;text-align:center;text-anchor:middle;fill:#ffffff">PA</tspan><tspan
|
||||
sodipodi:role="line"
|
||||
id="tspan88"
|
||||
x="779.22137"
|
||||
y="226.75621"
|
||||
style="font-size:13.3333px;text-align:center;text-anchor:middle;fill:#ffffff" /></text>
|
||||
<text
|
||||
id="NYn"
|
||||
x="811.52887"
|
||||
y="153.03532"
|
||||
style="font-size:13.3333px"><tspan
|
||||
sodipodi:role="line"
|
||||
x="811.52887"
|
||||
y="153.03532"
|
||||
id="tspan91"
|
||||
style="font-size:13.3333px;text-align:center;text-anchor:middle;fill:#ffffff;fill-opacity:1">NY</tspan></text>
|
||||
<text
|
||||
id="MEn"
|
||||
x="901.54358"
|
||||
y="94.712509"
|
||||
style="font-size:16px"><tspan
|
||||
style="fill:#ffffff"
|
||||
id="tspan101" /></text>
|
||||
<text
|
||||
id="MEn-9"
|
||||
x="882.96747"
|
||||
y="89.878593"
|
||||
style="font-size:14.7521px;stroke-width:0.52686"><tspan
|
||||
sodipodi:role="line"
|
||||
id="tspan5"
|
||||
x="882.96747"
|
||||
y="89.878593"
|
||||
style="fill:#ffffff;stroke-width:0.52686">ME</tspan></text>
|
||||
<text
|
||||
id="MEn-9-7"
|
||||
x="877.93567"
|
||||
y="111.5111"
|
||||
style="font-size:14.7521px;stroke-width:0.52686"><tspan
|
||||
sodipodi:role="line"
|
||||
id="tspan4-0"
|
||||
x="877.93567"
|
||||
y="111.5111"
|
||||
style="fill:#ffffff;stroke-width:0.52686" /><tspan
|
||||
sodipodi:role="line"
|
||||
id="tspan5-9"
|
||||
x="877.93567"
|
||||
y="129.95123"
|
||||
style="fill:#ffffff;stroke-width:0.52686" /></text>
|
||||
<text
|
||||
id="MEn-9-0"
|
||||
x="459.24854"
|
||||
y="239.60818"
|
||||
style="font-size:14.7521px;stroke-width:0.52686"><tspan
|
||||
sodipodi:role="line"
|
||||
id="tspan4-6"
|
||||
x="459.24854"
|
||||
y="239.60818"
|
||||
style="fill:#ffffff;fill-opacity:1;stroke-width:0.52686">II</tspan><tspan
|
||||
sodipodi:role="line"
|
||||
id="tspan5-2"
|
||||
x="459.24854"
|
||||
y="258.04831"
|
||||
style="fill:#ffffff;fill-opacity:1;stroke-width:0.52686" /></text>
|
||||
<text
|
||||
id="DemL"
|
||||
x="855"
|
||||
y="425" />
|
||||
<text
|
||||
id="RepL"
|
||||
x="855"
|
||||
y="458" />
|
||||
</g>
|
||||
<g
|
||||
font-size="22"
|
||||
id="g2">
|
||||
<text
|
||||
id="NHn"
|
||||
x="817.56848"
|
||||
y="56.648579"
|
||||
style="font-size:16px"><tspan
|
||||
style="font-size:16px;fill:#ffffff"
|
||||
id="tspan92" /></text>
|
||||
<text
|
||||
id="VTn"
|
||||
x="818.22137"
|
||||
y="81.230995"
|
||||
style="font-size:16px"><tspan
|
||||
style="fill:#ffffff"
|
||||
id="tspan93">VT</tspan></text>
|
||||
<text
|
||||
id="MAn"
|
||||
x="927"
|
||||
y="164"
|
||||
style="font-size:16px"><tspan
|
||||
style="fill:#ffffff"
|
||||
id="tspan94">MA</tspan></text>
|
||||
<text
|
||||
id="RIn"
|
||||
x="925"
|
||||
y="199"
|
||||
style="font-size:16px"><tspan
|
||||
style="font-size:16px;fill:#ffffff"
|
||||
id="tspan95">RI</tspan></text>
|
||||
<text
|
||||
id="CTn"
|
||||
x="918"
|
||||
y="228"
|
||||
style="font-size:16px"><tspan
|
||||
style="fill:#ffffff"
|
||||
id="tspan96">CT</tspan></text>
|
||||
<text
|
||||
id="NJn"
|
||||
x="898"
|
||||
y="260"
|
||||
style="font-size:16px"><tspan
|
||||
style="fill:#ffffff"
|
||||
id="tspan97">NJ</tspan></text>
|
||||
<text
|
||||
id="DEn"
|
||||
x="891"
|
||||
y="284"
|
||||
style="font-size:16px"><tspan
|
||||
style="font-size:16px;fill:#ffffff"
|
||||
id="tspan98">DE</tspan></text>
|
||||
<text
|
||||
id="MDn"
|
||||
x="883"
|
||||
y="305"
|
||||
style="font-size:16px"><tspan
|
||||
style="font-size:16px;fill:#ffffff"
|
||||
id="tspan99">MD</tspan></text>
|
||||
<text
|
||||
id="DCn"
|
||||
x="864"
|
||||
y="327"
|
||||
style="font-size:16px"><tspan
|
||||
style="font-size:16px;fill:#ffffff"
|
||||
id="tspan100" /></text>
|
||||
</g>
|
||||
</g>
|
||||
<!--
|
||||
<rect id="Dem" x="828" y="406" height="19" width="19" fill="#698DC5" stroke="#000000" stroke-width="0.8"/>
|
||||
<rect id="Rep" x="828" y="439" height="19" width="19" fill="#F07763" stroke="#000000" stroke-width="0.8"/>
|
||||
-->
|
||||
<path
|
||||
id="lines"
|
||||
d="m 854.7108,74.76564 -0.002,-5.99e-4 M 832,86 l 8,17 m 49,50 34,3 m -41,22 41,12 m -57,-6 51,33 m -72,13 50,22 m -58,-2 51,26 m -55,-15 46,33 m -79,-43 0.002,7e-5"
|
||||
stroke="#000"
|
||||
stroke-width="1.6"
|
||||
style="stroke:#fdfdfd;stroke-opacity:1"
|
||||
sodipodi:nodetypes="cccccccccccccccccc" />
|
||||
<path
|
||||
id="frames"
|
||||
d="M215,493v55l36,45 M0,425h147l68,68h85l54,54v46"
|
||||
fill="none"
|
||||
stroke="#A9A9A9"
|
||||
stroke-width="2" />
|
||||
</svg>
|
||||
|
After Width: | Height: | Size: 47 KiB |
100
data/rcp_polls.json
Normal file
100
data/rcp_polls.json
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,100 @@
|
|||
{
|
||||
"approval": {
|
||||
"polls": [{
|
||||
"pollster": "RCP Average",
|
||||
"date": "5/1 - 5/30",
|
||||
"sample": "None",
|
||||
"approve": "40.5",
|
||||
"disapprove": "56.2",
|
||||
"spread": "-15.7"
|
||||
}, {
|
||||
"pollster": "Rasmussen Reports",
|
||||
"date": "5/26 - 5/30",
|
||||
"sample": "1500 LV",
|
||||
"approve": "44",
|
||||
"disapprove": "55",
|
||||
"spread": "-11"
|
||||
}, {
|
||||
"pollster": "Economist/YouGov",
|
||||
"date": "5/25 - 5/28",
|
||||
"sample": "1547 RV",
|
||||
"approve": "40",
|
||||
"disapprove": "58",
|
||||
"spread": "-18"
|
||||
}, {
|
||||
"pollster": "Emerson",
|
||||
"date": "5/21 - 5/23",
|
||||
"sample": "1000 RV",
|
||||
"approve": "37",
|
||||
"disapprove": "52",
|
||||
"spread": "-15"
|
||||
}, {
|
||||
"pollster": "NPR/PBS/Marist",
|
||||
"date": "5/21 - 5/23",
|
||||
"sample": "1122 RV",
|
||||
"approve": "41",
|
||||
"disapprove": "55",
|
||||
"spread": "-14"
|
||||
}, {
|
||||
"pollster": "Reuters/Ipsos",
|
||||
"date": "5/17 - 5/20",
|
||||
"sample": "1017 A",
|
||||
"approve": "36",
|
||||
"disapprove": "59",
|
||||
"spread": "-23"
|
||||
}, {
|
||||
"pollster": "Quinnipiac",
|
||||
"date": "5/16 - 5/20",
|
||||
"sample": "1374 RV",
|
||||
"approve": "39",
|
||||
"disapprove": "56",
|
||||
"spread": "-17"
|
||||
}, {
|
||||
"pollster": "Harvard-Harris",
|
||||
"date": "5/15 - 5/16",
|
||||
"sample": "1660 RV",
|
||||
"approve": "44",
|
||||
"disapprove": "55",
|
||||
"spread": "-11"
|
||||
}, {
|
||||
"pollster": "Gallup",
|
||||
"date": "5/1 - 5/23",
|
||||
"sample": "1024 A",
|
||||
"approve": "39",
|
||||
"disapprove": "56",
|
||||
"spread": "-17"
|
||||
}, {
|
||||
"pollster": "FOX News",
|
||||
"date": "5/10 - 5/13",
|
||||
"sample": "1126 RV",
|
||||
"approve": "45",
|
||||
"disapprove": "55",
|
||||
"spread": "-10"
|
||||
}, {
|
||||
"pollster": "Yahoo News",
|
||||
"date": "5/10 - 5/13",
|
||||
"sample": "1200 RV",
|
||||
"approve": "41",
|
||||
"disapprove": "57",
|
||||
"spread": "-16"
|
||||
}, {
|
||||
"pollster": "Marquette",
|
||||
"date": "5/6 - 5/15",
|
||||
"sample": "811 RV",
|
||||
"approve": "40",
|
||||
"disapprove": "60",
|
||||
"spread": "-20"
|
||||
}]
|
||||
},
|
||||
"general": {
|
||||
"polls": [{
|
||||
"pollster": "RCP Average",
|
||||
"date": "5/10 - 5/31",
|
||||
"sample": "",
|
||||
"moe": "",
|
||||
"r_margin": "46.9",
|
||||
"d_margin": "46.3",
|
||||
"spread": "Trump +0.6"
|
||||
}]
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
|
@ -1,5 +1,9 @@
|
|||
import {ApplicationCommandOptionType} from "discord.js";
|
||||
const commands = [
|
||||
{
|
||||
name: 'poll',
|
||||
description: "Displays the latest poll numbers from a source (defaults to RealClearPolitics)"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
name: 'simulate',
|
||||
description: "Simulate the 2024 United States Presidential Election",
|
||||
|
|
@ -9,6 +13,16 @@ const commands = [
|
|||
description: 'Adds a bias to a certain candidate. Use a positive number for Biden bias, negative for Trump bias',
|
||||
type: ApplicationCommandOptionType.Number,
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
name: 'type',
|
||||
description: 'The type of election to simulate. Valid options are senate and presidential (default: presidential)',
|
||||
type: ApplicationCommandOptionType.String,
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
name: 'year',
|
||||
description: 'The year to set the simulation to (default: 2024)',
|
||||
type: ApplicationCommandOptionType.Number,
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
name: 'gopcandidate',
|
||||
description: 'The GOP candidate to simulate (default: Donald Trump)',
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -1,67 +0,0 @@
|
|||
const GOP_WIN_ODDS = {
|
||||
// Data from https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/president
|
||||
// Toss-up
|
||||
"AZ": 0.5,
|
||||
"GA": 0.5,
|
||||
"MI": 0.5,
|
||||
"NV": 0.5,
|
||||
"PA": 0.5,
|
||||
"WI": 0.5,
|
||||
// Lean D
|
||||
"MN": 0.4,
|
||||
"NH": 0.4,
|
||||
// Likely D
|
||||
"ME": 0.2,
|
||||
"VA": 0.2,
|
||||
// Solid D
|
||||
"CA": 0,
|
||||
"CO": 0,
|
||||
"CT": 0,
|
||||
"DC": 0,
|
||||
"DE": 0,
|
||||
"HI": 0,
|
||||
"IL": 0,
|
||||
"MA": 0,
|
||||
"MD": 0,
|
||||
"NJ": 0,
|
||||
"NM": 0,
|
||||
"NY": 0,
|
||||
"OR": 0,
|
||||
"RI": 0,
|
||||
"VT": 0,
|
||||
"WA": 0,
|
||||
"ME-01": 0,
|
||||
// Tilt R
|
||||
"NC": 0.55,
|
||||
"NE-02": 0.55,
|
||||
// Lean R
|
||||
"FL": 0.6,
|
||||
// Likely R
|
||||
"IA": 0.8,
|
||||
"OH": 0.8,
|
||||
"TX": 0.8,
|
||||
"ME-02": 0.8,
|
||||
// Solid R
|
||||
"AK": 1,
|
||||
"AL": 1,
|
||||
"AR": 1,
|
||||
"ID": 1,
|
||||
"IN": 1,
|
||||
"KS": 1,
|
||||
"KY": 1,
|
||||
"LA": 1,
|
||||
"MO": 1,
|
||||
"MS": 1,
|
||||
"MT": 1,
|
||||
"NE": 1,
|
||||
"ND": 1,
|
||||
"OK": 1,
|
||||
"SC": 1,
|
||||
"SD": 1,
|
||||
"TN": 1,
|
||||
"UT": 1,
|
||||
"WV": 1,
|
||||
"WY": 1
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
export default GOP_WIN_ODDS;
|
||||
75
src/index.ts
75
src/index.ts
|
|
@ -22,21 +22,68 @@ if (!config.token) {
|
|||
client.on('interactionCreate', async i => {
|
||||
if (i instanceof CommandInteraction) {
|
||||
switch (i.commandName) {
|
||||
case "poll":
|
||||
const rcp_polls = JSON.parse(fs.readFileSync('data/rcp_polls.json', "utf-8"));
|
||||
let polls = "";
|
||||
Object.keys(rcp_polls.approval.polls).forEach(poll => {
|
||||
polls += `:red_circle: **${rcp_polls.approval.polls[poll].pollster}** - (**${rcp_polls.approval.polls[poll].date}**), ${rcp_polls.approval.polls[poll].sample}, **${rcp_polls.approval.polls[poll].approve}**% approve, **${rcp_polls.approval.polls[poll].disapprove}**% disapprove (spread: **${rcp_polls.approval.polls[poll].spread}**)\n`;
|
||||
});
|
||||
await i.reply(`Biden Approval Rating\n\n${polls}`);
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "simulate":
|
||||
var gopcandidate = i.options.get('gopcandidate')?.value as string || "Donald J. Trump";
|
||||
var demcandidate = i.options.get('demcandidate')?.value as string || "Joseph R. Biden Jr.";
|
||||
var result = await MakePrediction(Number(i.options.get('bias')?.value), gopcandidate, demcandidate);
|
||||
var embed = new EmbedBuilder()
|
||||
.setTitle("2024 United States Presidential Election Simulator")
|
||||
.setDescription(`The CalubViem Press has called the 2024 United States Presidential Election for ${result.winner}!`)
|
||||
.addFields(
|
||||
{name: `${result.winner === gopcandidate ? ":white_check_mark:" : ""} ${gopcandidate}`, value: `${result.gopVotes} Electoral Votes`, inline: true},
|
||||
{name: `${result.winner === demcandidate ? ":white_check_mark:" : ""} ${demcandidate}`, value: `${result.demVotes} Electoral Votes`, inline: true},
|
||||
)
|
||||
.setImage("attachment://election.png")
|
||||
.setTimestamp();
|
||||
await i.reply({embeds: [embed], files: [{attachment: result.png, name: "election.png"}]});
|
||||
break;
|
||||
var simulationtype = i.options.get('type')?.value as string || "presidential";
|
||||
var year = Number(i.options.get('year')?.value);
|
||||
|
||||
switch(simulationtype) {
|
||||
case "presidential":
|
||||
if (year == 1864) {
|
||||
var gopcandidate = i.options.get('gopcandidate')?.value as string || "Abraham Lincoln";
|
||||
var demcandidate = i.options.get('demcandidate')?.value as string || "George B. McClellan";
|
||||
var result = await MakePrediction(Number(i.options.get('bias')?.value), gopcandidate, demcandidate, simulationtype, Number(i.options.get('year')?.value));
|
||||
var embed = new EmbedBuilder()
|
||||
.setTitle("1864 United States Presidential Election Simulator")
|
||||
.setDescription(`The CalubViem Press has rewritten history, and has called the 1864 United States Presidential Election for ${result.winner}!`)
|
||||
.addFields(
|
||||
{name: `${result.winner === gopcandidate ? ":white_check_mark:" : ""} ${gopcandidate}`, value: `${result.gopVotes} Electoral Votes`, inline: true},
|
||||
{name: `${result.winner === demcandidate ? ":white_check_mark:" : ""} ${demcandidate}`, value: `${result.demVotes} Electoral Votes`, inline: true},
|
||||
)
|
||||
.setImage("attachment://election.png")
|
||||
.setTimestamp();
|
||||
await i.reply({embeds: [embed], files: [{attachment: result.png, name: "election.png"}]});
|
||||
break;
|
||||
} else {
|
||||
var gopcandidate = i.options.get('gopcandidate')?.value as string || "Donald J. Trump";
|
||||
var demcandidate = i.options.get('demcandidate')?.value as string || "Joseph R. Biden Jr.";
|
||||
var result = await MakePrediction(Number(i.options.get('bias')?.value), gopcandidate, demcandidate, simulationtype, Number(i.options.get('year')?.value));
|
||||
var embed = new EmbedBuilder()
|
||||
.setTitle("2024 United States Presidential Election Simulator")
|
||||
.setDescription(`The CalubViem Press has called the 2024 United States Presidential Election for ${result.winner}!`)
|
||||
.addFields(
|
||||
{name: `${result.winner === gopcandidate ? ":white_check_mark:" : ""} ${gopcandidate}`, value: `${result.gopVotes} Electoral Votes`, inline: true},
|
||||
{name: `${result.winner === demcandidate ? ":white_check_mark:" : ""} ${demcandidate}`, value: `${result.demVotes} Electoral Votes`, inline: true},
|
||||
)
|
||||
.setImage("attachment://election.png")
|
||||
.setTimestamp();
|
||||
await i.reply({embeds: [embed], files: [{attachment: result.png, name: "election.png"}]});
|
||||
break;
|
||||
}
|
||||
case "senate":
|
||||
var gopcandidate = i.options.get('gopcandidate')?.value as string || "Republicans";
|
||||
var demcandidate = i.options.get('demcandidate')?.value as string || "Democrats";
|
||||
var result = await MakePrediction(Number(i.options.get('bias')?.value), gopcandidate, demcandidate, simulationtype, 0);
|
||||
var embed = new EmbedBuilder()
|
||||
.setTitle("2024 United States Presidential Election Simulator")
|
||||
.setDescription(`The CalubViem Press has called the 2024 United States Presidential Election for ${result.winner}!`)
|
||||
.addFields(
|
||||
{name: `${result.winner === gopcandidate ? ":white_check_mark:" : ""} ${gopcandidate}`, value: `${result.gopVotes} Electoral Votes`, inline: true},
|
||||
{name: `${result.winner === demcandidate ? ":white_check_mark:" : ""} ${demcandidate}`, value: `${result.demVotes} Electoral Votes`, inline: true},
|
||||
)
|
||||
.setImage("attachment://election.png")
|
||||
.setTimestamp();
|
||||
await i.reply({embeds: [embed], files: [{attachment: result.png, name: "election.png"}]});
|
||||
break;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
236
src/numbers.ts
Normal file
236
src/numbers.ts
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,236 @@
|
|||
const GOP_WIN_ODDS = {
|
||||
// Data from https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/president
|
||||
// Toss-up
|
||||
"AZ": 0.5,
|
||||
"GA": 0.5,
|
||||
"MI": 0.5,
|
||||
"NV": 0.5,
|
||||
"PA": 0.5,
|
||||
"WI": 0.5,
|
||||
// Lean D
|
||||
"MN": 0.4,
|
||||
"NH": 0.4,
|
||||
// Likely D
|
||||
"ME": 0.2,
|
||||
"VA": 0.2,
|
||||
// Solid D
|
||||
"CA": 0,
|
||||
"CO": 0,
|
||||
"CT": 0,
|
||||
"DC": 0,
|
||||
"DE": 0,
|
||||
"HI": 0,
|
||||
"IL": 0,
|
||||
"MA": 0,
|
||||
"MD": 0,
|
||||
"NJ": 0,
|
||||
"NM": 0,
|
||||
"NY": 0,
|
||||
"OR": 0,
|
||||
"RI": 0,
|
||||
"VT": 0,
|
||||
"WA": 0,
|
||||
"ME-01": 0,
|
||||
// Tilt R
|
||||
"NC": 0.55,
|
||||
"NE-02": 0.55,
|
||||
// Lean R
|
||||
"FL": 0.6,
|
||||
// Likely R
|
||||
"IA": 0.8,
|
||||
"OH": 0.8,
|
||||
"TX": 0.8,
|
||||
"ME-02": 0.8,
|
||||
// Solid R
|
||||
"AK": 1,
|
||||
"AL": 1,
|
||||
"AR": 1,
|
||||
"ID": 1,
|
||||
"IN": 1,
|
||||
"KS": 1,
|
||||
"KY": 1,
|
||||
"LA": 1,
|
||||
"MO": 1,
|
||||
"MS": 1,
|
||||
"MT": 1,
|
||||
"NE": 1,
|
||||
"ND": 1,
|
||||
"OK": 1,
|
||||
"SC": 1,
|
||||
"SD": 1,
|
||||
"TN": 1,
|
||||
"UT": 1,
|
||||
"WV": 1,
|
||||
"WY": 1
|
||||
};
|
||||
|
||||
const GOP_WIN_ODDS_1864 = {
|
||||
// Solid R
|
||||
"TN": 1,
|
||||
"KS": 1,
|
||||
"VT": 1,
|
||||
"MA": 1,
|
||||
// Likely R
|
||||
"MO": 0.99,
|
||||
"WV": 0.99,
|
||||
"IA": 0.95,
|
||||
"RI": 0.95,
|
||||
"NV": 0.9,
|
||||
"ME": 0.9,
|
||||
"IL": 0.8,
|
||||
"MN": 0.8,
|
||||
"CA": 0.7,
|
||||
"OH": 0.7,
|
||||
"WI": 0.7,
|
||||
"MD": 0.7,
|
||||
"OR": 0.7,
|
||||
"MI": 0.7,
|
||||
"IN": 0.6,
|
||||
"NH": 0.6,
|
||||
"PA": 0.6,
|
||||
"CT": 0.6,
|
||||
"NY": 0.55,
|
||||
"DE": 0.5,
|
||||
// Likely D
|
||||
"NJ": 0.4,
|
||||
"KY": 0.2,
|
||||
"LA": 0.2
|
||||
};
|
||||
|
||||
const GOP_WIN_ODDS_SENATE = {
|
||||
// Data from https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/senate
|
||||
// Toss-up
|
||||
"MT": 0.5,
|
||||
"OH": 0.5,
|
||||
// Tilt D
|
||||
"AZ": 0.4,
|
||||
"MI": 0.4,
|
||||
"NV": 0.4,
|
||||
"PA": 0.4,
|
||||
// Lean D
|
||||
"WI": 0.3,
|
||||
// Likely D
|
||||
"MD": 0.2,
|
||||
// Solid D
|
||||
"CA": 0,
|
||||
"CT": 0,
|
||||
"DE": 0,
|
||||
"HI": 0,
|
||||
"MA": 0,
|
||||
"ME": 0,
|
||||
"MN": 0,
|
||||
"NJ": 0,
|
||||
"NM": 0,
|
||||
"NY": 0,
|
||||
"RI": 0,
|
||||
"VA": 0,
|
||||
"VT": 0,
|
||||
"WA": 0,
|
||||
// Likely R
|
||||
"TX": 0.8,
|
||||
// Solid R
|
||||
"FL": 1,
|
||||
"IN": 1,
|
||||
"MO": 1,
|
||||
"MS": 1,
|
||||
"ND": 1,
|
||||
"NE": 1,
|
||||
"NE-02": 1,
|
||||
"TN": 1,
|
||||
"UT": 1,
|
||||
"WV": 1,
|
||||
"WY": 1
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
const ELECTORAL_COLLEGE = {
|
||||
"AL": 9,
|
||||
"AK": 3,
|
||||
"AZ": 11,
|
||||
"AR": 6,
|
||||
"CA": 54,
|
||||
"CO": 10,
|
||||
"CT": 7,
|
||||
"DE": 3,
|
||||
"DC": 3,
|
||||
"FL": 30,
|
||||
"GA": 16,
|
||||
"HI": 4,
|
||||
"ID": 4,
|
||||
"IL": 19,
|
||||
"IN": 11,
|
||||
"IA": 6,
|
||||
"KS": 6,
|
||||
"KY": 8,
|
||||
"LA": 8,
|
||||
"ME": 2,
|
||||
"ME-01": 1,
|
||||
"ME-02": 1,
|
||||
"MD": 10,
|
||||
"MA": 11,
|
||||
"MI": 15,
|
||||
"MN": 10,
|
||||
"MS": 6,
|
||||
"MO": 10,
|
||||
"MT": 4,
|
||||
"NE": 4,
|
||||
"NE-02": 1,
|
||||
"NV": 6,
|
||||
"NH": 4,
|
||||
"NJ": 14,
|
||||
"NM": 5,
|
||||
"NY": 28,
|
||||
"NC": 16,
|
||||
"ND": 3,
|
||||
"OH": 17,
|
||||
"OK": 7,
|
||||
"OR": 8,
|
||||
"PA": 19,
|
||||
"RI": 4,
|
||||
"SC": 9,
|
||||
"SD": 3,
|
||||
"TN": 11,
|
||||
"TX": 40,
|
||||
"UT": 6,
|
||||
"VT": 3,
|
||||
"VA": 13,
|
||||
"WA": 12,
|
||||
"WV": 4,
|
||||
"WI": 10,
|
||||
"WY": 3
|
||||
};
|
||||
|
||||
const ELECTORAL_COLLEGE_1864 = {
|
||||
"CA": 5,
|
||||
"CT": 6,
|
||||
"DE": 3,
|
||||
"IA": 8,
|
||||
"IL": 16,
|
||||
"IN": 13,
|
||||
"KS": 3,
|
||||
"KY": 11,
|
||||
"LA": 7,
|
||||
"MA": 12,
|
||||
"MD": 7,
|
||||
"ME": 7,
|
||||
"MI": 8,
|
||||
"MN": 4,
|
||||
"MO": 11,
|
||||
"NH": 5,
|
||||
"NV": 2,
|
||||
"NJ": 7,
|
||||
"NY": 33,
|
||||
"OH": 21,
|
||||
"OR": 3,
|
||||
"PA": 26,
|
||||
"RI": 4,
|
||||
"TN": 10,
|
||||
"VT": 5,
|
||||
"WI": 8,
|
||||
"WV": 5
|
||||
};
|
||||
|
||||
export const ElectoralCollege = ELECTORAL_COLLEGE;
|
||||
export const ElectoralCollege1864 = ELECTORAL_COLLEGE_1864;
|
||||
export const GOPWinOddsSenate = GOP_WIN_ODDS_SENATE;
|
||||
export const GOPWinOdds1864 = GOP_WIN_ODDS_1864;
|
||||
export const GOPWinOdds = GOP_WIN_ODDS;
|
||||
129
src/predictor.ts
129
src/predictor.ts
|
|
@ -1,5 +1,4 @@
|
|||
import GOP_WIN_ODDS from "./gopwinodds.js";
|
||||
import ELECTORAL_COLLEGE from "./states.js"
|
||||
import { ElectoralCollege, ElectoralCollege1864, GOPWinOdds, GOPWinOdds1864, GOPWinOddsSenate } from "./numbers.js";
|
||||
import { createSVGWindow } from 'svgdom'
|
||||
import { SVG, registerWindow } from '@svgdotjs/svg.js'
|
||||
import * as fs from "node:fs/promises";
|
||||
|
|
@ -7,8 +6,10 @@ import sharp from "sharp";
|
|||
import crypto from "crypto";
|
||||
|
||||
const BASE_SVG = await fs.readFile("assets/ElectoralCollege2024.svg", "utf-8");
|
||||
const BASE_SVG_1864 = await fs.readFile("assets/ElectoralCollege1864.svg", "utf-8");
|
||||
const BASE_SVG_SENATE = await fs.readFile("assets/SenateMap2024.svg", "utf-8");
|
||||
|
||||
export function MakePrediction(bias: number, gopcandidate : string, demcandidate : string) : Promise<Prediction> {
|
||||
export function MakePrediction(bias : number, gopcandidate : string, demcandidate : string, simulationtype : string, year : number) : Promise<Prediction> {
|
||||
return new Promise(async res => {
|
||||
if (Number.isNaN(bias)) bias = 0;
|
||||
const window = createSVGWindow();
|
||||
|
|
@ -16,33 +17,101 @@ export function MakePrediction(bias: number, gopcandidate : string, demcandidate
|
|||
var election = {} as any;
|
||||
var gopVotes = 0;
|
||||
var demVotes = 0;
|
||||
var draw = SVG(window.document.documentElement);
|
||||
draw.svg(BASE_SVG);
|
||||
for (const state of Object.keys(ELECTORAL_COLLEGE)) {
|
||||
if ((GOP_WIN_ODDS as any)[state] >= bias + await betterRandom()) {
|
||||
election[state] = "R";
|
||||
gopVotes += (ELECTORAL_COLLEGE as any)[state];
|
||||
// @ts-ignore
|
||||
draw.find(`#${state}`).fill("#BF1D29");
|
||||
}
|
||||
else {
|
||||
election[state] = "D";
|
||||
demVotes += (ELECTORAL_COLLEGE as any)[state];
|
||||
// @ts-ignore
|
||||
draw.find(`#${state}`).fill("#1C408C");
|
||||
}
|
||||
};
|
||||
var s = sharp(Buffer.from(draw.svg()));
|
||||
var png = await s.png().toBuffer();
|
||||
res({
|
||||
gopVotes,
|
||||
demVotes,
|
||||
gopCandidate: gopcandidate,
|
||||
demCandidate: demcandidate,
|
||||
winner: gopVotes > demVotes ? gopcandidate : demcandidate,
|
||||
svg: draw.svg(),
|
||||
png,
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
switch (simulationtype) {
|
||||
case "presidential":
|
||||
if(year == 1864) {
|
||||
var draw = SVG(window.document.documentElement);
|
||||
draw.svg(BASE_SVG_1864);
|
||||
for (const state of Object.keys(ElectoralCollege1864)) {
|
||||
if ((GOPWinOdds1864 as any)[state] >= bias + await betterRandom()) {
|
||||
election[state] = "R";
|
||||
gopVotes += (ElectoralCollege1864 as any)[state];
|
||||
// @ts-ignore
|
||||
draw.find(`#${state}`).fill("#BF1D29");
|
||||
}
|
||||
else {
|
||||
election[state] = "D";
|
||||
demVotes += (ElectoralCollege1864 as any)[state];
|
||||
// @ts-ignore
|
||||
draw.find(`#${state}`).fill("#1C408C");
|
||||
}
|
||||
};
|
||||
var s = sharp(Buffer.from(draw.svg()));
|
||||
var png = await s.png().toBuffer();
|
||||
res({
|
||||
gopVotes,
|
||||
demVotes,
|
||||
gopCandidate: gopcandidate,
|
||||
demCandidate: demcandidate,
|
||||
winner: gopVotes > demVotes ? gopcandidate : demcandidate,
|
||||
svg: draw.svg(),
|
||||
png,
|
||||
});
|
||||
break;
|
||||
} else {
|
||||
var draw = SVG(window.document.documentElement);
|
||||
draw.svg(BASE_SVG);
|
||||
for (const state of Object.keys(ElectoralCollege)) {
|
||||
if ((GOPWinOdds as any)[state] >= bias + await betterRandom()) {
|
||||
election[state] = "R";
|
||||
gopVotes += (ElectoralCollege as any)[state];
|
||||
// @ts-ignore
|
||||
draw.find(`#${state}`).fill("#BF1D29");
|
||||
}
|
||||
else {
|
||||
election[state] = "D";
|
||||
demVotes += (ElectoralCollege as any)[state];
|
||||
// @ts-ignore
|
||||
draw.find(`#${state}`).fill("#1C408C");
|
||||
}
|
||||
};
|
||||
var s = sharp(Buffer.from(draw.svg()));
|
||||
var png = await s.png().toBuffer();
|
||||
res({
|
||||
gopVotes,
|
||||
demVotes,
|
||||
gopCandidate: gopcandidate,
|
||||
demCandidate: demcandidate,
|
||||
winner: gopVotes > demVotes ? gopcandidate : demcandidate,
|
||||
svg: draw.svg(),
|
||||
png,
|
||||
});
|
||||
break;
|
||||
}
|
||||
case "senate":
|
||||
var draw = SVG(window.document.documentElement);
|
||||
draw.svg(BASE_SVG_SENATE);
|
||||
let senatestates = ["AZ", "CA", "CT", "DE", "FL", "HI", "IN", "MA", "MD", "ME", "MI", "MN",
|
||||
"MO", "MS", "MT", "ND", "NE", "NE-02", "NJ", "NM", "NV", "NY", "OH", "PA", "RI", "TN", "TX",
|
||||
"UT", "VA", "VT", "WA", "WI", "WV", "WY"];
|
||||
|
||||
for await (const state of senatestates) {
|
||||
if ((GOPWinOddsSenate as any)[state] >= bias + await betterRandom()) {
|
||||
election[state] = "R";
|
||||
gopVotes += 1;
|
||||
// @ts-ignore
|
||||
draw.find(`#${state}`).fill("#BF1D29");
|
||||
} else {
|
||||
election[state] = "D";
|
||||
demVotes += 1;
|
||||
// @ts-ignore
|
||||
draw.find(`#${state}`).fill("#1C408C");
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
var s = sharp(Buffer.from(draw.svg()));
|
||||
var png = await s.png().toBuffer();
|
||||
res({
|
||||
gopVotes,
|
||||
demVotes,
|
||||
gopCandidate: gopcandidate,
|
||||
demCandidate: demcandidate,
|
||||
winner: gopVotes > demVotes ? gopcandidate : demcandidate,
|
||||
svg: draw.svg(),
|
||||
png,
|
||||
});
|
||||
break;
|
||||
}
|
||||
});
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -1,58 +0,0 @@
|
|||
const ELECTORAL_COLLEGE = {
|
||||
"AL": 9,
|
||||
"AK": 3,
|
||||
"AZ": 11,
|
||||
"AR": 6,
|
||||
"CA": 54,
|
||||
"CO": 10,
|
||||
"CT": 7,
|
||||
"DE": 3,
|
||||
"DC": 3,
|
||||
"FL": 30,
|
||||
"GA": 16,
|
||||
"HI": 4,
|
||||
"ID": 4,
|
||||
"IL": 19,
|
||||
"IN": 11,
|
||||
"IA": 6,
|
||||
"KS": 6,
|
||||
"KY": 8,
|
||||
"LA": 8,
|
||||
"ME": 2,
|
||||
"ME-01": 1,
|
||||
"ME-02": 1,
|
||||
"MD": 10,
|
||||
"MA": 11,
|
||||
"MI": 15,
|
||||
"MN": 10,
|
||||
"MS": 6,
|
||||
"MO": 10,
|
||||
"MT": 4,
|
||||
"NE": 4,
|
||||
"NE-02": 1,
|
||||
"NV": 6,
|
||||
"NH": 4,
|
||||
"NJ": 14,
|
||||
"NM": 5,
|
||||
"NY": 28,
|
||||
"NC": 16,
|
||||
"ND": 3,
|
||||
"OH": 17,
|
||||
"OK": 7,
|
||||
"OR": 8,
|
||||
"PA": 19,
|
||||
"RI": 4,
|
||||
"SC": 9,
|
||||
"SD": 3,
|
||||
"TN": 11,
|
||||
"TX": 40,
|
||||
"UT": 6,
|
||||
"VT": 3,
|
||||
"VA": 13,
|
||||
"WA": 12,
|
||||
"WV": 4,
|
||||
"WI": 10,
|
||||
"WY": 3
|
||||
};
|
||||
|
||||
export default ELECTORAL_COLLEGE;
|
||||
Loading…
Reference in a new issue